Field Of One — MLB Analysis

HIGH CONF

MODEL EDGE >65%

MED CONF

MODEL EDGE 55–65%

LOW CONF

MODEL EDGE 50–55%

PATTERN FLAGS

HOME EDGE 5-10 + SIGNALS

SEASON SNAPSHOT

OVERALL RECORD

—

WIN RATE

—

HOME EDGE 5-10

—

CONFIRMED PATTERN

GAMES TODAY

ALIGNED PLAYS

—

MODEL + MARKET AGREE

TODAY'S GAME DESK

MATCHUP	CONF	SIDE	MODEL O/U	EDGE	HOME EDGE	ENV SCORE	ENV LEAN	PATTERN	ALIGNMENT	MARKET SIGNAL

MARKET DATA

TOTALS SIGNAL ⚡ SHARP (RLM) 🌊 STEAM 👥 PUBLIC

MATCHUP	TOTAL	OPEN	MOVE	BETS O/U	MONEY O/U	SIGNAL

ML COLOR Shortened 10+ pts Shortened <10 pts Lengthened 10+ pts Bets/$ = Away %

MATCHUP	AWAY ML	HOME ML	AWAY RL	HOME RL	BETS%	$%	SIGNAL

PUBLIC MONEY SPLITS — TOTALS

SEASON WIN RATE — 20-GAME ROLLING AVERAGE

WIN RATE BY CONFIDENCE TIER

TIER	RECORD	SEASON WIN %	LAST 30 WIN %	TREND

PATTERN ANALYSIS

NOTES & KNOWN LIMITATIONS

High Conf underperforming at 49.0% across 51 games — sample size is now meaningful, not noise; High Conf Over specifically at 46.9% (15-17) is below break-even. Monitoring for systematic over-confidence in high-certainty calls.
Med Conf is the confirmed strongest tier — 55.7% overall (39-31, n=70), Med Conf Over at 56.8% (21-16) both confirmed edges. Model calibration is sharpest in the middle confidence band.
Books have been consistently under-pricing totals across 2026 season (54.5% overall) — exception: High Conf Over plays are trending below break-even and should not be treated as automatic value.
Sharp History signals currently underperforming model alone — monitoring separately
Pitcher blending (65/35 2025/2026 ratio) introduces noise with small 2026 sample — ongoing calibration
Away patterns need larger sample before confirmation — sample building
Opening ML capture needed for true RLM calculation — identified next step
BAL@MIA park factor flagged for review — May 23 model log

TODAY'S SCORING ENVIRONMENT

MATCHUP	STADIUM	ENV SCORE	LEAN	TEMP	WIND	DOME

HISTORICAL ENVIRONMENT PERFORMANCE

ENV LEAN	SAMPLE	RECORD	WIN %	STATUS

NOTES